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Looking back at ginger 1993-2018

Part of the article:unknown Popularity: Publication time:2018-08-30 08:27
Recently, Liuxiang suddenly wanted to know the historical quotations of ginger. On the one hand, Liuxiang hoped to find out the current market position from the historical quotations. On the other hand, Liuxiang wanted to have a holistic understanding of ginger industry.
However, it is found that the information on the Internet is very limited and scattered, and most of the historical information is scattered in the memory of experienced traders in the ginger industry. Liu Xiang feels that this is a huge industry wealth and should not be submerged in the flood of time.
So, from everywhere to look for information, finally found some Jiangjie Dacai on the Forum on the history of the essence of the post summary. Recently opened the "Old Ding Shuo Jiang" this forum column, the opening is Laoding's summary of historical quotations, which let me have a deeper understanding of the historical quotations of ginger.
First, life is prosperous by Kang po - the ginger market cycle.
Where there is fluctuation, there is a cycle, only when it is discovered.
The volatility of the world economy has made economists and investors obsessed with looking for cycles to avoid risks early in a recession and seize opportunities early in the economic take-off.
Cyclical king Zhou Jintao said: "life is rich by Kang Bo." He thinks: Everyone's accumulation of wealth should not be thought of as their own ability, wealth accumulation is entirely derived from the economic cycle movement time to give you the opportunity.
Kang Bo is the economic cycle promoted by the world's new technology. A Kang Bo is a Jia - 60 years. For a person, he was born in a certain node of conpo, and was destined for his life's economic trajectory.
The price cycle of agricultural products is more obvious, and most of our investment in agricultural products is based on price fluctuations. For example, ginger, born before the 1970s, has the opportunity to participate in the 1996-1997 market, born before 85 years have the opportunity to participate in the 2014-2015 market.
This is what Confucius said: "do not know fate, do not think gentleman." Coal owners catch up with the commodity boom cycle, speculation catch up with the asset appreciation cycle, everyone's fate is a cycle. We have shorter and more frequent cycles in the agricultural sector, where we experience recovery, prosperity, recession, depression, a year of earnings, a year of losses, a year of parity.
So when we judge the market and make a lot of money, we should think modestly that it is not our own bullish, is the wind of the market leading us to fly.
History will not repeat itself, but it will always be strikingly similar. We summarize history and look for cycles. We look for similar "laws," take historical yardsticks, measure current price positions, and think about decisions with odds and odds.
Two, the value of ginger Market Analysis
In the past, some people have proposed that the market is an unknown future, unpredictable, can be predicted on their own to do, so the market analysis of China Gingernet is not valuable, flickering. Thank you for your questioning, which also inspires us to keep thinking about where we are worth in the industry as a whole.
When drawing the "impression map", do we need to think deeply about those people who grasp the big market? Did they know the future ahead of time? Did they take the time machine back to the past? No They did not predict the future, but did the following two things:
1, win or lose the "table", waiting.
2, constantly sum up the historical market, and then continue to practice.
The first point is to patiently prosper from depression, the second point is to accumulate experience, summarize history, look at the present, experience out. The first point is that everyone is doing, the second point is that everyone is constantly pursuing, China Jiang Net Forum many celebrities are also the same. When we are discussing the market, making investment decisions, we are taking their own historical experience, combined with the current market to analyze and judge the future market. The divergence of the future market trend is only because we have different perceptions and perceptions of the historical trend and the current situation.
China Ginger Network is the same, founded in 2007, has more than 10 years of historical experience, when we give members investment advice, but also carefully analyze the historical trend, investigate the current market situation, and then give recommendations.
China ginger net Market Analysis of ginger industry value can roughly sum up two aspects:
1, summarize historical experience, investigate and analyze the current situation, and give investment suggestions.
2. Make everyone's third eye and ear: co-ordinate the ginger market throughout the country, find everyone's blind spot, and then tell you.
As to whether the future can be predicted or not, the correctness of the prediction will be given to future verification. We can only be cautious, objective proof, listen to the market attitude to constantly ask their own thinking patterns: why I am right in my judgment.
I also hope that you Jiang You keep asking yourself this question. This is not doubting yourself, but being open-minded, accepting different voices, and then analyzing his logic and way of thinking, to verify and examine ourselves in reality.
In the ginger market, market analysis can not predict the future accurately, but it tells us:
1. Looking ahead, consider future "unexpected risk incidents", keep a close eye on market trends, and make timely investment adjustments.
2. Continuously sum up experience, listen to different voices and suggestions, so as not to be misled by their own cognitive limitations.
Three, the rule of "impression map"
01 the depression period in ginger City
Back to this "impression map", there is a horizontal price line, 1.00 yuan / kg, this line is the average profit balance line of ginger farmers in China. In fact, the profit balance line should be a fluctuating curve because of the influence of climate, origin and management level. But in order to find the law conveniently, the input of ginger farming production is relatively fixed. Therefore, we simplify it as an average line as our analytical tool.
We find that when the price of ginger is lower than 1.00 yuan per kilogram, it represents the decline of ginger market and depresses the planting enthusiasm of some ginger farmers. After the recession, it was the recovery period, and the price rose, breaking through 1 yuan / Jin. Followed by the boom period, prices continued to rise until the peak. Vertices often do not last long, which is related to the concentration of the source, ginger 80% of the supply concentrated in the hands of ginger farmers. The more concentrated the goods are, the fiercer the price increases, and the more the same price falls.
The "Ginger cycle", commonly known as the "Ginger cycle", is actually the time between two low points, which is generally considered to be about 4 years. The longer the low prices in the general depression and recession continue, the more price increases in the boom period, the most recent of which was the Great Depression in Jiangshi in 2012-2013.
02 ginger price trends
Generally, the high point of ginger prices in September, July, August, is the rise in ginger prices, because after more than half a year of consumption, not much in the cellar. After fresh ginger from the place of origin appears on the market, the price will fall due to the increase of supply. The price is generally low when the cellar is opened in the round period until the ginger is planted.
Ginger demand side, mainly the wholesale market, part of the export, a small amount of processing, because the demand side channels are few, so the price response is sensitive, as long as the supply is large, the price immediately fell, supply shortage, price immediately rose.
If it is a big market, the upward trend begins, generally to continue for more than half a year of small upward gestation period (recovery period), according to the year is June signs. The upward trend is that while the peak of price is higher than the peak, the low point of price correction is higher than the valley (boom period).
It should be noted that when we pay attention to the price, we must first make sure that the price is the real transaction price, the mainstream transaction price, rather than the quotation from the origin. There is a normal fluctuating space for prices of different places and quality. Don't panic.
03 do not wait until the highest price is sold.
The cost price relationship illustrates this view. Price rise, on behalf of market demand is greater than supply, prices continue to rise, on behalf of supply is still unable to meet demand, prices continue to rise? At this time, we have to look at the market volume, if the market volume is very small, indicating that the demand side has not recognized, not accept the price, at this time the high price is a bubble. It shows that someone at the supply side controls the source of the goods, and when the price is frying, if there is goods in hand, we must consider it.
Do not wait until the highest price to sell, on the one hand you have difficulty in knowing which price will be the highest, on the other hand because high prices will in turn inhibit demand, you may not be able to sell. As for ginger, as the price goes up, the volume of trading will gradually shrink. Many stockholders lose money, that is to say, they have lost their money here. They must consider the circulation of agricultural products. If the price rises and the market volume does not decrease too much, it means that the demand side accepts the price and it is safe to keep it at this time.
Therefore, do not expect to sell at the highest price, to eat the market "fish belly", bag for safety, not for the market "fish tail".
04 Jiang Nong: the higher the proportion of quality ginger, the better the income.
We study the trend of historical market and serve the investors of Jiang city. And it is absolutely impossible for all ginger farmers to seize the boom and make money, at least in the current ginger industry is difficult to achieve. The market is so cruel, in the case of stable demand, the smaller the total planting area, the smaller the supply, the faster the boom will come, which means that ginger farmers planting area and yield can not be large, which is in contradiction with the interests of ginger farmers.
The most important thing for ginger industry to develop is to retain ginger farmers and guarantee the interests of ginger farmers.
Years of historical trends found that a piece of ginger, in a certain yield, the higher the proportion of high-quality ginger, the land's harvest success. This simple truth can help Jiang farmers reduce losses during the recession and increase returns during the boom.
As we all know, "Gao Jiang has a high price", but China's Ginger net plant protection team believes that there must be a premise:
Under the premise of reducing the input of Jiang Nong, increasing output and raising the proportion of quality ginger are the most profitable.